Analysis of USDA Livestock Price Forecasting Accuracy for Cattle, Hogs, and Broilers
نویسندگان
چکیده
Agricultural markets, compared to other sectors, are typically characterized by uncertainty and high price fluctuations. High volatility in livestock markets leads inefficient resource allocation production planning. Expert forecasts not always affordable for all market players, so readily available public have risen popularity. This study uses accuracy-based testing methods evaluate the accuracy of United States Department Agriculture (USDA) forecasting utilizing World Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) quarterly data slaughter cattle, hogs, broilers. The also employs a vector error correction (VEC) model compare USDA forecasts. Results suggest that forecast was more accurate than competing VEC across three suggested low RMSE MAE. beta efficiency test results showed were efficient series, whereas biased hogs broiler prices. findings confirm cattle prices with tendency repeat past markets. from encompassing tests captured information contained However, because hog did show any improvement over time, there is room Overall, broilers provide useful market. indicate reduce economically significant levels.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Applied economics & business
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2613-8360']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4038/aeb.v5i1.24